Trump’s Approval Rating Remains Underwater in GOP-Leaning Poll

Donald Trump’s approval rating remains slightly underwater, according to a new poll conducted by Republican-leaning firm RMG Research in partnership with Napolitan News.

The poll, conducted from May 20 to 29 among 3,000 registered voters, found that 49% of respondents approve of Trump’s performance, while 50% disapprove. The survey has a margin of error of ±1.8 percentage points, placing the results within statistical uncertainty.

Why It Matters

Although there have been indications of a modest rebound in Trump’s approval following a downturn linked to his “Liberation Day” tariffs in April, the latest figures show the president remains in negative territory—even in a poll commissioned by a right-leaning organization. This could signal concern for Trump’s allies ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

Context and Trends

The current results mark a slight improvement from an earlier mid-May survey by the same polling firms, which showed Trump at 48% approval and 50% disapproval. This is one of only a few times during Trump’s second term that he has recorded a net negative approval rating in this particular poll series.

The lowest point came in mid-April, shortly after the announcement of the “Liberation Day” tariffs, which roiled financial markets and raised fears of a recession. That poll showed a net approval of -3 (48% approve, 51% disapprove). By contrast, Trump’s highest approval rating in this poll—+18—was recorded in January, shortly after he returned to office, with 57% approving and 39% disapproving.

Expert Commentary

Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor at Northeastern University, told Newsweek:

“Poll estimates can bounce around somewhat due to statistical noise, but the declining overall approval trend for Trump since the start of his second term portends challenges for the president. The deterioration in approval persists in the most recent reading of this poll.”

Panagopoulos suggested that growing public concern over Trump’s policies may be contributing to the dip, noting that presidents with lower approval ratings often face greater resistance in Congress.

Robert Collins, a political analyst and professor at Dillard University, also weighed in:

“Trump’s approval is inching up because the economy has stabilized and he has paused some of his more draconian tariffs. However, if those tariffs are reimposed and lead to higher prices, his approval could dip again. While the current figure is somewhat low for a president midway through a second term, it’s still within historical norms.”

Democratic pollster Matt McDermott offered a more skeptical view of recent fluctuations:

“These small changes are statistical noise—not momentum. Trump may try to deflect blame for economic troubles, but voters already have a clear view of who’s responsible.”

What Critics Are Saying

Critics of Donald Trump argue that his approval rating is likely to continue declining due to a combination of polarizing policies, erratic leadership style, and deepening public fatigue.

His recent push for aggressive tariffs under the “Liberation Day” initiative reignited fears of economic instability, particularly among working-class Americans who could be hardest hit by rising prices. Despite a brief pause on these measures, the damage to consumer and business confidence may already be done.

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Furthermore, Trump’s confrontational rhetoric and tendency to blame others—whether Congress, the media, or international partners—has alienated moderate and independent voters.

Critics also point to his lack of focus on bipartisan governance and a continued reliance on divisive cultural issues rather than concrete policy achievements.

Scandals, legal entanglements, and ongoing investigations also cloud public perception and reinforce concerns about his fitness for office.

Political analysts suggest that unless Trump adjusts his approach and broadens his appeal beyond his base, his approval ratings may struggle to recover.

In a polarized political environment, public trust and approval are hard-won—and critics argue Trump’s recent moves risk eroding the remaining goodwill among undecided or swing voters as the nation looks ahead to the 2026 midterms.

Looking Ahead

Trump’s approval rating is expected to be a critical factor for Republicans as they prepare for the 2026 midterm elections. The party’s ability to maintain momentum may hinge on whether Trump can improve his standing with voters in the months ahead.