Here is what the future holds for electric cars by 2030: In Europe, it is obvious to see how many new electric cars are on the road. In Germany, for example, battery electric vehicles accounted for about 14% of new car sales in 2021, with plug-in hybrids accounting for another 12.5%.
Even the financially troubled United Kingdom, where BEVs accounted for 11.6 percent of new car sales last year, is experiencing a BEV boom. We’re also purchasing more electric cars than ever before in the United States.
However, BEVs only represented 3% of the new vehicle market in 2021, which makes me concerned about the country’s lofty ambitions of EVs accounting for half of all new car sales in less than a decade.
Advocates for transportation and climate change had hoped for a comprehensive plan to decarbonize the way Americans move about the country, but, like so many other ambitious (and even inadequate) ideas, it didn’t make it past the US Senate.
What we did achieve was a new federal policy mandating that by 2030, 50% of all new automobiles and light trucks be zero-emissions vehicles (a mix of BEVs, PHEVs, and fuel cell EVs), as well as an additional $7.5 billion for more EV chargers.
When you add in the announcements from automakers promising—or aspiring—to be 100% electric by 2030, the future seems bright. However, these lofty ambitions have yet to pervade the rest of the federal government.
Despite strong opposition from the White House and the Environmental Protection Agency, the USPS will initially acquire just 5,000 BEVs as part of a plan to replace 50,000–165,000 delivery vehicles. The good news for those hoping to see EV adoption rise in the United States is that customer enthusiasm is at an all-time high.
Starting in 2021, the online auto retailer CarMax reports a continuous increase in client searches for electric vehicles, as well as an increase in test drives.
Between February and March 2022, each of these patterns grew dramatically. According to the business, during the same period, gasoline prices increased by an average of 66 cents per gallon.
If you’re purchasing a new car, going electric isn’t a cheap choice, especially because many automakers are focused on the profit-rich premium end of the market when they release new electrified models.
CarMax cites the Chevrolet Bolt EV, BMW i3, and Nissan Leaf as three popular EVs that sell for less on the used market than the typical car sold at CarMax ($29,000). The Tesla Model 3, with an average price of $49,440, remains CarMax’s most popular EV.
As we’ve previously stated, the most effective way to persuade someone of the advantages of electric vehicles is to put them in one for a couple of minutes. JD Power, which performed another survey on car customers’ thoughts on switching to an EV, has verified this theory once more.
According to the study, 24 percent of new-vehicle consumers were willing to consider an EV after riding in one, and 34 percent wanted an EV after driving one. Only 11% of the EV-naïve, on the other hand, were willing to contemplate turning electric.
According to JD Power’s research, interest in EVs is twice as strong among consumers seeking a luxury automobile as those looking for a mass-market vehicle, indicating that those car firms are skating to where the puck is.
However, the rate of rise among people who say they are “very likely” to buy a new EV has climbed by 6% for owners of mass-market cars and by only 1% for owners of luxury cars, indicating that consumers are receptive to the notion of more-affordable EVs, according to the report. When it comes to EV adoption in the United States, both CarMax and JD Power point to a regional mismatch.
CarMax’s largest EV sales were in Washington, California, Utah, Arizona, and Oregon between the start of Q4 2021 and the end of Q1 2022, according to JD Power, and sales in coastal states were greater than in the central US.
According to JD Power, more consumers in the West (31%) were “extremely inclined” to choose an electric vehicle, while the South (26%) actually outperformed the Northeast and North Central areas.
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The good news is that US auto customers are interested in electric vehicles, and that desire is only rising as more new EV models are introduced by big OEMs and startups.
However, getting to a 50/50 mix of EVs and internal combustion engines by the end of the decade isn’t a sure conclusion.
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